Forest dynamics and ecosystem collapse in open-access problems

 

The scientific literature has long argued that deforestation compromises ecosystem services (IPCC, 2019). Increasing evidence now points to the possibility of irreversible tipping points, where deforestation destroys an ecosystem’s ability to support environmental health and human welfare, as well as rent generation (Lovejoy and Nobre, Reference Lovejoy and Nobre2018; Lenton et al., Reference Lenton, Rockström, Gaffney, Rahmstorf, Richardson, Steffen and Schellnhuber2019). “Savannization” of the Brazilian Amazon, in which tropical rainforest shifts into a scrubland ecosystem similar to that of the Cerrado, is now feared, along with a loss of ecosystem resilience (Silvério et al., Reference Silvério, Brando, Balch, Balch, Putz, Nepstad, Oliveira-Santos and Bustamante2013; Boulton et al., Reference Boulton, Lenton and Boers2022; Shirai et al., Reference Shirai, Courtenay, Agerström, Freitas, Baccaro and Trad2024). Tipping is certainly a threat, given that tropical, developing countries often have land-use policies that favour primary native forest clearing and open-access exploitation, both by land users and governments. Indeed, governments have increasingly pursued rents at the expense of forests: at the 26th Conference of the Parties, Indonesia publicly backtracked on its deforestation reduction commitment, citing a need to support economic development over environmental protection. Similarly, Brazil’s lack of Forest Code enforcement has favoured resource extraction and reversed progress on recent reductions in deforestation (Schons et al., Reference Schons, Lima, Amacher and Merry2019).