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Intervenant: James Bushnell, Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of California, Davis and Research Associate, NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research)
Titre: Energy Policy Modeling Under Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act
Résumé: In recent years the analysis of US climate policy on the electricity sector has predominantly deployed electricity planning models that use deterministic or equilibrium optimization methods. While uncertainty in key input assumptions is considered, it is usually restricted to scenario analysis. In this study we combine time-series econometric forecasting methods with an equilibrium electricity system-expansion model. The goal is to produce statistically rigorous distributions of outcomes, rather than rely upon individually selected scenarios. We apply these techniques to the case of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the context of the western US grid. The most significant power sector financial incentive is a production tax credit applied to eligible zero-carbon and storage resources. Preliminary results indicate that the impacts of the IRA depend heavily on the realization of several key exogenous variables. The result is a heavily skewed distribution of outcomes such as induced emissions reductions and the implied marginal costs of abatement.
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