Climat et Débats

Insight on the impact on energy security of different climate change pathways in the EU

Publié le 22 juin 2022

Uniquement disponible en anglais.

Par Matteo Le Hérissé.

This Climate & Debates paper is the follow up of Matteo Le Hérissé’s dissertation that Anna Creti supervised last year, for his completion of the master International Affairs and Development at Paris Dauphine University – PSL. The topic of gas security of supply has gained an incredible attention in the last months, amidst the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This has motivated to complete a broader study that unveils the challenges to correctly measure and monitor gas dependence at the European level. With Gazprom starting to disconnect several countries, among which France, the questions on security of supply deserve sound economic analysis, as this paper illustrates.

JEL codes:

– Q34 Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
– Q38 Government Policy
– Q54 Climate, Natural Disasters and Their Management, Global Warming

This study examines the impact on energy security of different pathways the European Union’s energy system may follow, regarding climate change mitigation. As outlined by the current geopolitical, ecological and economical context, energy security has become a key metric and remains at the roots of many high-level decisions in our societies. Also, despite its manifold definitions, it encompasses parameters which reflect crucial matters such as conditions of living of populations. In order to provide an overview of how energy security intertwines with the green transition, this paper proposes an energy security index. If the latter doesn’t answer considerations on the comprehensiveness of energy security indexes or on other methodological limitations hindering the definition of a uniquely recognised index, we consider it as a powerful abstraction tool. Indeed, this approach allows to grasp the extent of the observed dynamics in a simple figure and to identify trends. The presented methodology and related index are applied for the evaluation of energy security in the countries of the European Union, allowing for a compilation in a single indicator. We find a close linkage between energy security and the green transition, with projected energy security index pathways indicating the net-zero scenario would have the best positive impact on energy security, whereas the “hot house world” scenario depicts a great deterioration of energy security in the EU.

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