(INRA) presents «Revising the hierarchy of geographical impacts in response to climate change and water prices: a prospective approach to French agriculture»
Pressures on resources and climate change are likely to strongly impact the availability of water. Agricultural systems are directly affected by the scarcity of water for irrigation. To estimate these impacts, we develop a prospective approach combining an agro-economic model and a crop model. Applied to a large part of the French agricultural sector, this work extends previous analyses in which water was excluded from the core of the analysis. Three contrasting climate scenarios were used over the long-term period 2010-2100. Results indicate that potential change in water demand would differ strongly according to the region concerned and the scenario applied. In France as a whole, irrigation increases in all scenarios. The largest increase, of 60% under the intermediate scenario, and significant increases, of 40% under the smoothest scenario and of 20% under the toughest scenario, occur between 2010 and 2100. Differentiating the northern and southern regions, the relative increase is more marked in the north, while southern demand significantly increases under the intermediate scenario and decreases under the toughest scenario. When considering autonomous adaptation of farming systems to climate change, agricultural income in northern regions is likely to be negatively affected to a greater extent than in southern regions.
If you wish to receive invitations to FLMs, present your works or unsubscribe from the mailing list please feel free to contact this address: flm@ChaireEconomieduClimat.org
Chaire Economie du Climat
Palais Brongniart, 28 Place de la bourse – 75 002 Paris
FLM- Salle du Séminaire – 4è étage (12.30 pm – 2 pm)