A counter-factual analysis
By Marc BAUDRY and Clément BONNET
Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies can rely on two types of approach to stimulate innovation: supply-push and demand-pull. The latter aims at creating demand for new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. Nevertheless, due to the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and to spillovers between the countries it is hard to determine whether newly installed capacities are imputable to national support policies and/or to policies implemented by neighbor countries. The paper addresses this problem. A micro-founded model of technology diffusion is developed and calibrated. It captures the influence of demand-pull policies on wind power installed capacities for six European countries over the last decade. A counter-factual analysis is carried out to assess the impact of demand-pull policies on wind power development by taking into account the interplay between national policies via spillovers.
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