François GEMENNE is a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and specialist in environmental and migration geopolitics. He is a researcher at the Strategic Research Fund (FNRS) at the University of Liège (Belgium). He teaches climate policy and international migration at Sciences Po Paris and Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.
Géopolitique du climat: Négociations, stratégies, impacts [i] examines how recognizing inequalities in greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts of climate change, and international relations can foster climate agreements through collective action. François GEMENNE emphasizes the necessity of international cooperation to combat climate change, considering it a global public good with unevenly distributed impacts—those polluting the least being the ones who suffer the most consequences. The book’s analytical approach and readability make it an excellent resource for understanding the evolution of international relations in climate change efforts. It covers the history of major events and actions in the global fight against climate change, from the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the 2015 Paris COP 21. The book is expected to address the progress of international climate negotiations, including the influence of political and diplomatic powers like the US, China, and the EU, and the role of BRICS in counterbalancing the US and EU’s influence, especially given their disagreements on various issues.
The book, composed of nine chapters, can be divided into three main sections.
The first section addresses the geography of emissions and impacts, exploring questions such as why some countries pollute more than others and why some are more vulnerable. The most well-known explanation for why some countries have higher pollution levels is the Kuznets environmental curve hypothesis, which links economic growth to environmental impact. Other contributing factors include demographics, particularly population structure and diet; energy policies; geographical elements like climate, distance from urban centres, and natural resource availability; and historical events.
The second part focuses on the impacts of the geopolitics of climate change, including climate migration and security issues. Natural disasters, rising sea levels and water stress are the main sources of climate migration, which can occur both internally within countries or internationally. Climate change is a major security challenge, most notably due to the scarcity of natural resources, as well as the correlation between migration and crime.
However, the consideration of climate change as an international security issue divides. Industrialised countries, including the US, Canada, Britain and EU countries oppose the emerging group of countries, including Russia, India and China on the issue. Fearing that industrialised countries might shrink their responsibility if climate change is considered a security issue, emerging countries are against the idea of the UN Security Council categorising it as such. According to the author, their lacks consensus on the issue in the scientific sphere. Although correlation is established, causality is not.
The third part of the book addresses the crucial stakes of international cooperation, mechanisms for reducing GHG emissions, and the sharing of emissions reduction effort across the globe. The author emphasises on the fact that international cooperation is essential, and that the action of a only a few countries wouldn’t be significant enough to mitigate global warming effects. Major emitters like the EU, USA, and BRICS must work together. Currently, this cooperation mainly happens through the scientific work of the IPCC and political actions like the Conference of the Parties (COP).
Negotiations focus on sharing the reduction costs between developed and developing countries. Developing countries, exempt from mandatory reductions, are essential participants due to their rapidly growing emissions and lower abatement costs. This exemption comes from the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, established in the Kyoto Protocol, whose objective is to ensure equity, capacity, and accountability in global climate action.
However, some challenges still remain. In particular, they can lie in defining developing countries, especially BRICS, and determining how to distribute reduction efforts. Approaches include emission allowances based on historical responsibility, energy intensity, or per capita emissions, each with different implications for developed and developing nations. Another emerging idea is individual emission allowances, with each citizen being allowed a given number of tradable annual quota on the global carbon market.
In conclusion, “Géopolitique du climat: Négociations, stratégies, impacts” provides a comprehensive analysis of international climate change efforts. It highlights the need for global cooperation among major emitters and explores the geopolitical impacts of climate change, such as migration and security concerns. The book emphasizes the importance of scientific and political collaboration through the IPCC and COP conferences and discusses various approaches to equitable emission reduction. Central to these efforts is the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, and reflects on justice and inequalities in the midst of worsening climate change impacts. Overall, it underscores the critical need for collaborative action, based on mutual trust, to reach equitable agreements to effectively address climate change.
Ibrahim Kabore, ULHN/CEC research fellow.
[i] Gemenne. F., Géopolitique du climat, Négociations, stratégies, impacts, Ed. Armand Colin, parution 2015, pp.240.